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UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

12-17  |  Road

85
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 7:00 PM ET
McKenzie Arena
View Odds Details →

CHATTANOOGA

MOCSUTC

12-17  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
📊
MOCS
100%
SPARTANS --
MOCS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
CHATTANOOGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SpartansUNCG (-3.5) 0 MocsUTC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

38.2%

Mocs Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTC +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTC)

UNCG By 1-7 points

27.2%

UNCG By 8-14 points

20.1%

UTC By 1-7 points

21.6%

UTC By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
81
UNC GREENSBORO
78
CHATTANOOGA
Simulated Score
69
UNC GREENSBORO
72
CHATTANOOGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mocs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mocs (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Mocs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 UNCG @ UTC 85 - 80
Jan 1, 2026 UTC @ UNCG 72 - 77
Feb 27, 2025 UTC @ UNCG 75 - 63
Jan 9, 2025 UNCG @ UTC 78 - 75
Feb 10, 2024 UTC @ UNCG 89 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +31.8% more
UNC Greensboro: 7.1 vs Chattanooga: 4.9
Blocks (L5) +78.9% more
Chattanooga: 3.1 vs UNC Greensboro: 1.8
Assists (L5) +18.5% more
Chattanooga: 15.6 vs UNC Greensboro: 13.2
Rebounding (L5) +15.3% more
Chattanooga: 34.1 vs UNC Greensboro: 29.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCG Score 81.0 85
UTC Score 78.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.9 / 39.7 32.0 / 33.0
Assists 15.6 / 13.2 17.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.1 / 1.8 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 54.0 / 50.6 42.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 81.3 / 70.6 78.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 34.1 / 29.6 36.0 / 37.0
Steals 4.9 / 7.1 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 10.3 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCG Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
UTC
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCG Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
UTC
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTC
UNCG
UTC
UNCG
ML
48% 15-16
38% 13-21
53% 16-14
71% 24-10
ATS
52% 16-15
44% 15-19
55% 17-14
71% 24-10
TTL
77% 24-7
76% 26-8
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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