Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Seawolves @ Hawks STBK @ MONM

STONY BROOK

SEAWOLVESSTBK

17-11  |  Road

69
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 7:00 PM ET
OceanFirst Bank Center
View Odds Details →

MONMOUTH

HAWKSMONM

14-14  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
SEAWOLVES
100%
📊
HAWKS
0%
SEAWOLVES --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MONMOUTH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Monmouth)
SeawolvesSTBK (-3.5) 0 HawksMONM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seawolves Cover

46.0%

Hawks Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MONM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONM)

STBK By 1-7 points

24.3%

STBK By 8-14 points

13.7%

MONM By 1-7 points

26.2%

MONM By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
71
STONY BROOK
72
MONMOUTH
Simulated Score
70
STONY BROOK
78
MONMOUTH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawks (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 STBK @ MONM 69 - 82
Feb 5, 2026 MONM @ STBK 76 - 75
Feb 13, 2025 MONM @ STBK 79 - 69
Jan 2, 2025 STBK @ MONM 56 - 78
Feb 17, 2024 STBK @ MONM 61 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +12.1% more
Monmouth: 13.1 vs Stony Brook: 11.7
Rebounding (L5) +8.8% more
Monmouth: 36.1 vs Stony Brook: 33.2
Blocks (L5) +60.2% more
Stony Brook: 5.0 vs Monmouth: 2.0
Steals (L5) +22.6% more
Stony Brook: 8.1 vs Monmouth: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STBK Score 71.0 69
MONM Score 72.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 34.5 40.0 / 29.0
Assists 13.1 / 11.7 18.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.0 / 5.0 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 45.4 53.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 76.7 / 75.4 73.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 33.2 35.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.3 / 8.1 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 11.6 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STBK
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
MONM Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STBK Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
MONM
17-15-1 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
MONM
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONM
STBK
MONM
STBK
ML
62% 21-13
61% 19-12
64% 21-12
71% 22-9
ATS
62% 21-13
61% 19-12
64% 21-12
71% 22-9
TTL
59% 20-14
65% 20-11
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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