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NORTH CAROLINA A&T

AGGIESNCAT

11-15  |  Road

65
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Trask Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC WILMINGTON

SEAHAWKSUNCW

24-4  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
SEAHAWKS
0%
AGGIES --
SEAHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
UNC WILMINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (UNC Wilmington)
AggiesNCAT (-3.5) 0 SeahawksUNCW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

42.1%

Seahawks Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCW -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCW)

NCAT By 1-7 points

23.0%

NCAT By 8-14 points

12.2%

UNCW By 1-7 points

26.8%

UNCW By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
72
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
74
UNC WILMINGTON
Simulated Score
65
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
78
UNC WILMINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seahawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seahawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seahawks (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Seahawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 NCAT @ UNCW 65 - 88
Dec 29, 2025 UNCW @ NCAT 87 - 78
Jan 30, 2025 UNCW @ NCAT 83 - 59
Feb 15, 2024 NCAT @ UNCW 54 - 73
Feb 2, 2023 NCAT @ UNCW 63 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +12.6% more
UNC Wilmington: 38.7 vs North Carolina A&T: 34.3
Turnovers (L5) +24.2% more
North Carolina A&T: 11.1 vs UNC Wilmington: 8.4
Blocks (L5) +11.9% more
North Carolina A&T: 3.2 vs UNC Wilmington: 2.8
Free Throw % (L5) +10.2%
North Carolina A&T: 75.6% vs UNC Wilmington: 65.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCAT Score 72.0 65
UNCW Score 74.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 39.4 44.0 / 25.0
Assists 11.5 / 11.8 18.0 / 6.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.2 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.0 / 51.0 48.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 65.4 / 75.6 71.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 34.3 42.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.1 / 5.7 5.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 8.4 / 11.1 4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCAT
11-19-0 (36.7%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.5
UNCW Advantage
27-7-0 (79.4%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCAT Advantage
16-12-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.5
UNCW
16-14-2 (53.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NCAT
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.6
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCW
NCAT
UNCW
NCAT
ML
64% 21-12
52% 14-13
52% 17-16
63% 17-10
ATS
58% 19-14
63% 17-10
52% 17-16
64% 18-10
TTL
61% 20-13
69% 18-8-1
100% 33-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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