Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Retrievers BRY @ UMBC

BRYANT

BULLDOGSBRY

8-19  |  Road

58
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 6:00 PM ET
Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena
View Odds Details →

UMBC

RETRIEVERSUMBC

18-8  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
RETRIEVERS
0%
BULLDOGS --
RETRIEVERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (UMBC)
BulldogsBRY (-3.5) 0 RetrieversUMBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

3.6%

Retrievers Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UMBC -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)

BRY By 1-7 points

2.7%

BRY By 8-14 points

0.5%

UMBC By 1-7 points

10.7%

UMBC By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
71
BRYANT
89
UMBC
Simulated Score
71
BRYANT
76
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Retrievers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Retrievers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Retrievers (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Retrievers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 BRY @ UMBC 58 - 70
Jan 15, 2026 UMBC @ BRY 74 - 79
Mar 8, 2025 UMBC @ BRY 74 - 85
Feb 15, 2025 UMBC @ BRY 79 - 81
Jan 30, 2025 BRY @ UMBC 92 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +16.8% more
UMBC: 36.0 vs Bryant: 30.8
Assists (L5) +8.3% more
UMBC: 11.1 vs Bryant: 10.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
UMBC: 36.8% vs Bryant: 31.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
UMBC: 43.5% vs Bryant: 41.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BRY Score 71.0 58
UMBC Score 89.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 31.5 26.0 / 35.0
Assists 11.1 / 10.3 6.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.3 / 2.6 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 41.2 47.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 79.7 / 82.8 89.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 30.8 40.0 / 23.0
Steals 5.0 / 6.2 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 7.1 / 12.5 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRY
9-22-0 (29.0%)
Margin: -7.6 ATS +/-: -4.2
UMBC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRY
11-18-0 (37.9%)
Margin: -7.6 ATS +/-: -4.2
UMBC Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BRY
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: -1.7
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
BRY
UMBC
BRY
ML
58% 18-13
70% 21-9
55% 17-14
80% 24-6
ATS
68% 21-10
73% 22-8
55% 17-14
80% 24-6
TTL
39% 12-19
67% 20-10
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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