HAWAI'I
RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW
19-7 | Road
77
UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
17-11 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
RAINBOW WARRIORS
100%
AGGIES
0%
RAINBOW WARRIORS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (UC Davis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCD -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)
HAW By 1-7 points
5.8%
HAW By 8-14 points
1.4%
UCD By 1-7 points
16.9%
UCD By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Hawai'i
62
HAWAI'I
UC Davis
76
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
Hawai'i
68
HAWAI'I
UC Davis
72
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aggies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aggies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
HAW @ UCD
77 - 73
Dec 4, 2025
UCD @ HAW
69 - 75
Mar 1, 2025
UCD @ HAW
70 - 78
Jan 23, 2025
HAW @ UCD
66 - 68
Mar 15, 2024
HAW @ UCD
65 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+106.0% more
UC Davis: 15.9
vs
Hawai'i: 7.7
Steals (L5)
+43.5% more
UC Davis: 7.9
vs
Hawai'i: 5.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
UC Davis: 31.5%
vs
Hawai'i: 26.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.2%
UC Davis: 73.1%
vs
Hawai'i: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HAW Score
62.0
77
UCD Score
76.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 26.9
31.0 / 45.0
Assists
15.9 / 7.7
10.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.1 / 2.9
1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 42.1
43.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
73.1 / 69.9
81.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
30.7 / 39.0
32.0 / 27.0
Steals
7.9 / 5.5
6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 13.5
17.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 9.0
ATS +/-: -0.3
UCD
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 9.0
ATS +/-: -0.3
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -0.1
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
HAW
UCD
HAW
ML
58%
19-14
61%
20-13
64%
21-12
68%
21-10
ATS
61%
20-13
67%
22-11
64%
21-12
68%
21-10
TTL
61%
20-13
61%
20-13
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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