VMI
KEYDETSVMI
6-23 | Road
61
SAMFORD
BULLDOGSSAM
16-13 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
KEYDETS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
KEYDETS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Samford)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)
VMI By 1-7 points
24.3%
VMI By 8-14 points
13.7%
SAM By 1-7 points
26.2%
SAM By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
VMI
76
VMI
Samford
77
SAMFORD
Simulated Score
VMI
70
VMI
Samford
92
SAMFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+16.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
VMI @ SAM
61 - 80
Jan 1, 2026
SAM @ VMI
78 - 58
Feb 27, 2025
SAM @ VMI
95 - 83
Jan 9, 2025
VMI @ SAM
68 - 81
Feb 10, 2024
SAM @ VMI
102 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+21.3% more
Samford: 35.5
vs
VMI: 29.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.3%
Samford: 48.8%
vs
VMI: 39.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
Samford: 37.8%
vs
VMI: 34.4%
Steals (L5)
+11.5% more
VMI: 5.8
vs
Samford: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VMI Score
76.0
61
SAM Score
77.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.8 / 34.4
39.0 / 23.0
Assists
13.9 / 12.9
19.0 / 10.0
Blocks
1.5 / 1.6
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 39.5
50.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
74.5 / 77.3
74.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
35.5 / 29.3
36.0 / 34.0
Steals
5.2 / 5.8
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 8.9
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VMI
6-26-0
(18.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
SAM
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VMI
9-20-0
(31.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
SAM
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.1
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAM
VMI
SAM
VMI
ML
65%
20-11
53%
17-15
68%
21-10
84%
27-5
ATS
68%
21-10
50%
16-16
68%
21-10
84%
27-5
TTL
35%
11-20
62%
20-12
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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