Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Lancers UTA @ CBU

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

15-12  |  Road

56
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 10:00 PM ET
Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA BAPTIST

LANCERSCBU

19-8  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
LANCERS
0%
MAVERICKS --
LANCERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (California Baptist)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 LancersCBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

46.0%

Lancers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CBU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CBU)

UTA By 1-7 points

24.3%

UTA By 8-14 points

13.7%

CBU By 1-7 points

26.2%

CBU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
72
UT ARLINGTON
73
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Simulated Score
70
UT ARLINGTON
75
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lancers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lancers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lancers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o133.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u133.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 UTA @ CBU 56 - 68
Jan 31, 2026 CBU @ UTA 87 - 77
Jan 1, 2026 CBU @ UTA 51 - 63
Mar 8, 2025 UTA @ CBU 68 - 70
Feb 13, 2025 CBU @ UTA 79 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +30.0% more
California Baptist: 4.0 vs UT Arlington: 3.1
Rebounding (L5) +19.8% more
California Baptist: 41.5 vs UT Arlington: 34.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.7%
California Baptist: 34.6% vs UT Arlington: 25.9%
Free Throw % (L5) +8.7%
California Baptist: 71.7% vs UT Arlington: 63.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 72.0 56
CBU Score 73.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 25.9 40.0 / 17.0
Assists 9.5 / 11.5 9.0 / 5.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.1 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 34.8 / 42.2 46.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 71.7 / 63.0 73.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 41.5 / 34.6 37.0 / 37.0
Steals 4.7 / 7.8 2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 14.4 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
CBU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
CBU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBU
UTA
CBU
UTA
ML
50% 17-17
50% 16-16
76% 25-8
62% 20-12
ATS
53% 18-16
59% 19-13
76% 25-8
62% 20-12
TTL
47% 16-18
53% 17-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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