UTEP
MINERSUTEP
10-17 | Road
67
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BLUE RAIDERSMTSU
13-14 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
MINERS
100%
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
MINERS
--
BLUE RAIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)
UTEP By 1-7 points
16.9%
UTEP By 8-14 points
6.8%
MTSU By 1-7 points
26.8%
MTSU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UTEP
75
UTEP
Middle Tennessee
81
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
UTEP
69
UTEP
Middle Tennessee
72
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Raiders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Raiders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Raiders (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Blue Raiders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
UTEP @ MTSU
67 - 77
Jan 8, 2026
MTSU @ UTEP
80 - 83
Mar 1, 2025
MTSU @ UTEP
76 - 75
Feb 1, 2025
UTEP @ MTSU
68 - 71
Feb 17, 2024
UTEP @ MTSU
90 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+62.9% more
Middle Tennessee: 15.2
vs
UTEP: 9.3
Steals (L5)
+30.7% more
Middle Tennessee: 7.0
vs
UTEP: 5.4
Blocks (L5)
+8.6% more
Middle Tennessee: 3.8
vs
UTEP: 3.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Middle Tennessee: 45.4%
vs
UTEP: 42.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score
75.0
67
MTSU Score
81.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.4 / 35.5
33.0 / 45.0
Assists
15.2 / 9.3
11.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.5
0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 42.7
45.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 77.0
77.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
35.1 / 33.9
35.0 / 24.0
Steals
7.0 / 5.4
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
8.2 / 9.3
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
11-20-0
(35.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -1.7
MTSU
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
Advantage
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -1.7
MTSU
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
12-15-1
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: -1.2
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
UTEP
MTSU
UTEP
ML
56%
18-14
70%
21-9
69%
22-10
72%
21-8
ATS
75%
24-8
57%
17-13
69%
22-10
73%
22-8
TTL
53%
17-15
60%
18-12
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
