Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hornets @ Grizzlies SAC @ MONT

SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

9-18  |  Road

73
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 9:00 PM ET
Dahlberg Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

14-14  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
HORNETS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MONTANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Montana)
HornetsSAC (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMONT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

34.5%

Grizzlies Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MONT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONT)

SAC By 1-7 points

20.1%

SAC By 8-14 points

9.3%

MONT By 1-7 points

27.4%

MONT By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
77
SACRAMENTO STATE
81
MONTANA
Simulated Score
65
SACRAMENTO STATE
72
MONTANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 SAC @ MONT 73 - 81
Jan 31, 2026 MONT @ SAC 79 - 86
Feb 27, 2025 MONT @ SAC 60 - 54
Feb 1, 2025 SAC @ MONT 59 - 87
Feb 22, 2024 SAC @ MONT 61 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +38.6% more
Montana: 12.4 vs Sacramento State: 9.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Montana: 36.3% vs Sacramento State: 31.6%
Steals (L5) +29.7% more
Sacramento State: 8.6 vs Montana: 6.0
Blocks (L5) +18.8% more
Sacramento State: 2.3 vs Montana: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 77.0 73
MONT Score 81.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 31.6 38.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.2 / 12.6 18.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.9 / 2.3 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 45.4 51.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 78.2 / 80.3 80.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 28.9 / 30.1 36.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.0 / 8.6 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 9.0 13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
MONT Advantage
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
MONT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONT
SAC
MONT
SAC
ML
39% 13-20
57% 17-13
73% 24-9
87% 26-4
ATS
55% 18-15
73% 22-8
73% 24-9
87% 27-4
TTL
59% 19-13-1
60% 18-12
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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