PORTLAND STATE
VIKINGSPRST
18-8 | Road
69
MONTANA STATE
BOBCATSMTST
15-13 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
0%
BOBCATS
100%
VIKINGS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PORTLAND STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Portland State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PRST -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PRST)
PRST By 1-7 points
27.2%
PRST By 8-14 points
20.1%
MTST By 1-7 points
21.6%
MTST By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland State
75
PORTLAND STATE
Montana State
72
MONTANA STATE
Simulated Score
Portland State
70
PORTLAND STATE
Montana State
75
MONTANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Vikings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Vikings (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o140.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
PRST @ MTST
69 - 84
Jan 31, 2026
MTST @ PRST
54 - 63
Feb 27, 2025
MTST @ PRST
52 - 69
Feb 1, 2025
PRST @ MTST
73 - 74
Feb 22, 2024
PRST @ MTST
67 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+23.4% more
Portland State: 35.1
vs
Montana State: 26.9
Steals (L5)
+15.3% more
Montana State: 7.9
vs
Portland State: 6.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Montana State: 45.0%
vs
Portland State: 41.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PRST Score
75.0
69
MTST Score
72.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 31.6
50.0 / 50.0
Assists
10.4 / 10.2
18.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.8 / 3.1
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 41.2
52.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
76.3 / 75.8
73.0 / 57.0
Rebounding
26.9 / 35.1
24.0 / 29.0
Steals
7.9 / 6.8
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 9.4
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PRST
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
MTST
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PRST
Advantage
18-9-1
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
MTST
16-12-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PRST
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.9
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTST
PRST
MTST
PRST
ML
52%
16-15
65%
20-11
67%
20-10
71%
22-9
ATS
52%
16-15
71%
22-9
67%
20-10
71%
22-9
TTL
65%
20-11
47%
14-16-1
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
