NORTH DAKOTA STATE
BISONNDSU
23-6 | Road
62
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
21-8 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
0%
TOMMIES
100%
BISON
--
TOMMIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (North Dakota State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NDSU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)
NDSU By 1-7 points
27.2%
NDSU By 8-14 points
23.0%
STMN By 1-7 points
18.6%
STMN By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
North Dakota State
72
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
St. Thomas-Minnesota
67
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
North Dakota State
68
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
St. Thomas-Minnesota
72
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bison
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tommies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bison (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Tommies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
NDSU @ STMN
62 - 84
Jan 17, 2026
STMN @ NDSU
65 - 68
Feb 2, 2025
NDSU @ STMN
62 - 79
Jan 2, 2025
STMN @ NDSU
89 - 85
Mar 10, 2024
NDSU @ STMN
58 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+26.8% more
North Dakota State: 7.5
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 5.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+17.8%
North Dakota State: 72.9%
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 55.2%
Blocks (L5)
+16.3% more
North Dakota State: 2.6
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 2.2
Turnovers (L5)
+15.5% more
North Dakota State: 10.9
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NDSU Score
72.0
62
STMN Score
67.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.9 / 38.6
40.0 / 24.0
Assists
16.8 / 19.0
23.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.2 / 2.6
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
55.3 / 49.6
56.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
55.2 / 72.9
86.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
34.9 / 39.9
36.0 / 32.0
Steals
5.5 / 7.5
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.2 / 10.9
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NDSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
STMN
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NDSU
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
STMN
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.9
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STMN
NDSU
STMN
NDSU
ML
64%
21-12
49%
17-18
64%
21-12
59%
20-14
ATS
70%
23-10
54%
19-16
64%
21-12
59%
20-14
TTL
61%
20-13
43%
15-20
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
