TARLETON STATE
TEXANSTAR
14-14 | Road
72
UTAH VALLEY
WOLVERINESUVU
20-7 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
100%
WOLVERINES
0%
TEXANS
--
WOLVERINES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
UTAH VALLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Utah Valley)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVU)
TAR By 1-7 points
16.9%
TAR By 8-14 points
6.8%
UVU By 1-7 points
26.8%
UVU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tarleton State
67
TARLETON STATE
Utah Valley
73
UTAH VALLEY
Simulated Score
Tarleton State
67
TARLETON STATE
Utah Valley
73
UTAH VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolverines
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolverines
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolverines (+17.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Wolverines (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
TAR @ UVU
72 - 79
Jan 29, 2026
UVU @ TAR
83 - 55
Jan 1, 2026
UVU @ TAR
91 - 85
Mar 8, 2025
UVU @ TAR
71 - 66
Feb 8, 2025
TAR @ UVU
56 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+69.6% more
Utah Valley: 15.2
vs
Tarleton State: 9.0
Blocks (L5)
+55.1% more
Utah Valley: 5.4
vs
Tarleton State: 3.5
Rebounding (L5)
+29.0% more
Utah Valley: 38.5
vs
Tarleton State: 29.9
Steals (L5)
+20.0% more
Utah Valley: 10.8
vs
Tarleton State: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TAR Score
67.0
72
UVU Score
73.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
23.4 / 25.9
25.0 / 53.0
Assists
15.2 / 9.0
19.0 / 17.0
Blocks
5.4 / 3.5
9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 45.7
50.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
66.9 / 74.7
68.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
38.5 / 29.9
36.0 / 38.0
Steals
10.8 / 9.0
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 12.4
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
UVU
Advantage
25-9-0
(73.5%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR
Advantage
14-14-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
UVU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
UVU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVU
TAR
UVU
TAR
ML
56%
18-14
59%
19-13
72%
23-9
66%
21-11
ATS
53%
17-15
69%
22-10
74%
25-9
66%
21-11
TTL
44%
14-18
50%
16-16
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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