Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Hilltoppers NMSU @ WKU

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

13-13  |  Road

70
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 7:30 PM ET
E.A. Diddle Arena
View Odds Details →

WESTERN KENTUCKY

HILLTOPPERSWKU

16-11  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
HILLTOPPERS
100%
AGGIES --
HILLTOPPERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (New Mexico State)
AggiesNMSU (-3.5) 0 HilltoppersWKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

81.6%

Hilltoppers Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NMSU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

NMSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

NMSU By 8-14 points

26.8%

WKU By 1-7 points

12.2%

WKU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
75
NEW MEXICO STATE
66
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
68
NEW MEXICO STATE
78
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hilltoppers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aggies (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Hilltoppers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 NMSU @ WKU 70 - 93
Jan 8, 2026 WKU @ NMSU 64 - 80
Mar 1, 2025 WKU @ NMSU 47 - 65
Feb 1, 2025 NMSU @ WKU 69 - 101
Mar 14, 2024 NMSU @ WKU 69 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +71.6% more
New Mexico State: 3.9 vs Western Kentucky: 1.1
Rebounding (L5) +11.3% more
New Mexico State: 38.5 vs Western Kentucky: 34.1
Steals (L5) +102.9% more
Western Kentucky: 7.7 vs New Mexico State: 3.8
Turnovers (L5) +26.1% more
Western Kentucky: 9.8 vs New Mexico State: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 75.0 70
WKU Score 66.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.9 / 33.7 44.0 / 17.0
Assists 14.5 / 14.3 20.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.1 / 3.9 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 42.7 51.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 87.5 / 77.4 71.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 34.1 / 38.5 40.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.7 / 3.8 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 7.8 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
WKU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
WKU Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
NMSU
WKU
NMSU
ML
56% 18-14
61% 19-12
66% 21-11
67% 20-10
ATS
53% 17-15
65% 20-11
66% 21-11
67% 20-10
TTL
56% 18-14
45% 14-17
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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