MICHIGAN STATE
SPARTANSMSU
22-5 | Road
76
PURDUE
BOILERMAKERSPUR
22-5 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
BOILERMAKERS
0%
SPARTANS
--
BOILERMAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Purdue)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)
MSU By 1-7 points
15.3%
MSU By 8-14 points
5.8%
PUR By 1-7 points
26.2%
PUR By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Michigan State
65
MICHIGAN STATE
Purdue
72
PURDUE
Simulated Score
Michigan State
71
MICHIGAN STATE
Purdue
78
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Boilermakers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Boilermakers (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Boilermakers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
MSU @ PUR
76 - 74
Feb 18, 2025
PUR @ MSU
66 - 75
Mar 15, 2024
MSU @ PUR
62 - 67
Mar 2, 2024
MSU @ PUR
74 - 80
Jan 29, 2023
MSU @ PUR
61 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+87.6% more
Purdue: 6.8
vs
Michigan State: 3.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.9%
Purdue: 41.3%
vs
Michigan State: 34.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.9%
Purdue: 50.8%
vs
Michigan State: 43.9%
Blocks (L5)
+31.8% more
Michigan State: 3.1
vs
Purdue: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MSU Score
65.0
76
PUR Score
72.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.3 / 34.4
48.0 / 32.0
Assists
19.0 / 18.1
23.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.1 / 3.1
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
50.8 / 43.9
49.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
74.6 / 81.9
67.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 40.5
27.0 / 25.0
Steals
6.8 / 3.6
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
7.4 / 10.8
9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
PUR
30-9-0
(76.9%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU
Advantage
17-16-2
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
PUR
17-22-0
(43.6%)
Margin: 11.1
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +1.5
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
MSU
PUR
MSU
ML
67%
26-13
71%
25-10
66%
25-13
61%
20-13
ATS
64%
25-14
71%
25-10
66%
25-13
61%
20-13
TTL
51%
20-19
49%
17-18
100%
38-0
100%
33-0
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