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NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

32-21-5  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Bell Centre
View Odds Details →

MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

32-17-8  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Ilya Sorokin
GOALTENDER

Ilya Sorokin

#30 | Goaltender
@
Sam Montembeault
GOALTENDER

Sam Montembeault

#35 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ilya Sorokin None-None 2.95 0.880 --
Sam Montembeault None-None 3.92 0.846 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.95 Ldr GAA 3.92
0.880 Ldr Save % 0.846
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
100%
📊
CANADIENS
0%
ISLANDERS --
CANADIENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MONTREAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Montreal)
IslandersNYI (-3.5) 0 CanadiensMTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Islanders Cover

6.7%

Canadiens Cover

93.3%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MTL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTL)

NYI By 1 goal

2.8%

NYI By 2-3 goals

1.2%

MTL By 1 goal

12.1%

MTL By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
NEW YORK
4
MONTREAL
Simulated Score
2
NEW YORK
3
MONTREAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Canadiens Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Canadiens Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Canadiens (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim Canadiens (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 MTL @ NYI 4 - 1
Mar 21, 2026 NYI @ MTL 3 - 7
Feb 26, 2026 NYI @ MTL 4 - 3
Mar 20, 2025 MTL @ NYI 3 - 4
Dec 3, 2024 NYI @ MTL 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +52.7% more
Montreal: 6.3 vs New York: 4.1
Power Play % (L5) +27.4%
Montreal: 31.0% vs New York: 3.6%
Blocked Shots (L5) +19.7% more
Montreal: 14.7 vs New York: 12.3
Shots on Goal (L5) +17.1% more
Montreal: 26.2 vs New York: 22.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYI Score 1.0 4
MTL Score 4.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
12%MONEY88%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
NYI
MTL
NYI
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
67% 2-1-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
yardbarker 9 hours, 16 minutes ago
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
si 9 hours, 18 minutes ago
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
yardbarker 9 hours, 28 minutes ago
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
si 15 hours, 18 minutes ago
Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
yardbarker 1 day, 3 hours ago