Home / NHL Projections NHL / Lightning @ Hurricanes TB @ CAR

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

38-14-4  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Lenovo Center
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

HURRICANESCAR

36-15-6  |  Home

5
Goaltending
J.J. Moser
GOALTENDER

J.J. Moser

#90 | Defense
@
Brandon Bussi
GOALTENDER

Brandon Bussi

#32 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
J.J. Moser None-None -- -- --
Brandon Bussi None-None 4.00 0.857 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 4.00
-- Save % 0.857
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
📊
HURRICANES
100%
LIGHTNING --
HURRICANES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 HurricanesCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Hurricanes Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around CAR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

CAR By 1 goal

12.1%

CAR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TAMPA BAY
2
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
4
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hurricanes Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hurricanes (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Hurricanes (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 CAR @ TB 4 - 2
Feb 26, 2026 TB @ CAR 4 - 5
Dec 20, 2025 CAR @ TB 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2025 CAR @ TB 5 - 6
Sep 22, 2025 TB @ CAR 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +19.6% more
Tampa Bay: 22.8 vs Carolina: 18.3
Blocked Shots (L5) +15.7% more
Tampa Bay: 12.9 vs Carolina: 10.9
Power Play % (L5) +11.0%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Carolina: 20.5%
Takeaways (L5) +26.9% more
Carolina: 5.4 vs Tampa Bay: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 4
CAR Score 2.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
26%MONEY74%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
TB
CAR
TB
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
TTL
0% 0-5
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
100% 4-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Barkov Eyes Late November Return; Marchand Could Be Back Soon fo…
wsvn 3 hours, 14 minutes ago
Panthers Eyeing Vladimir Tarasenko as Insurance for Brad Marchan…
yardbarker 3 hours, 16 minutes ago
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
local10 21 hours, 26 minutes ago
Steelers Bolster Secondary with Addition of Veteran Cornerback S…
si 1 day, 3 hours ago
Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
yardbarker 1 day, 3 hours ago