Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Nuggets BOS @ DEN

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

38-19  |  Road

84
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 10:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

36-22  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
CELTICS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
251.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

86.4%

Nuggets Cover

13.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

21.6%

BOS By 8-14 points

27.4%

DEN By 1-7 points

9.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
131
BOSTON
120
DENVER
Simulated Score
112
BOSTON
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o228.5 Loss
Proj Total: 251.0
D
Sim u228.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 BOS @ DEN 84 - 103
Jan 7, 2026 DEN @ BOS 114 - 110
Mar 2, 2025 DEN @ BOS 103 - 110
Jan 7, 2025 BOS @ DEN 118 - 106
Oct 6, 2024 DEN @ BOS 104 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +52.0% more
Boston: 6.0 vs Denver: 2.9
Rebounding (L5) +10.6% more
Boston: 53.7 vs Denver: 48.0
Free Throw % (L5) +1.8%
Boston: 82.6% vs Denver: 80.9%
Steals (L5) +74.1% more
Denver: 9.9 vs Boston: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 131.0 84
DEN Score 120.0 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 33.8 35.0 / 28.0
Assists 30.2 / 27.1 28.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.9 / 6.0 4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 45.1 42.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 80.9 / 82.6 56.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 48.0 / 53.7 54.0 / 48.0
Steals 9.9 / 5.7 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.9 / 12.5 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
BOS
DEN
BOS
ML
54% 57-48
57% 61-46
55% 47-39
53% 47-41
ATS
63% 65-38-2
59% 61-43-3
55% 47-39
53% 47-41
TTL
54% 56-48-1
56% 60-47
100% 86-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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