CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
8-20 | Road
72
UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
19-9 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
TRITONS
0%
ROADRUNNERS
--
TRITONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (UC San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCSD -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
CSUB By 1-7 points
1.4%
CSUB By 8-14 points
0.2%
UCSD By 1-7 points
6.8%
UCSD By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Bakersfield
65
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
UC San Diego
86
UC SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Cal State Bakersfield
68
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
UC San Diego
72
UC SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tritons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tritons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tritons (-14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Tritons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
CSUB @ UCSD
72 - 84
Jan 17, 2026
UCSD @ CSUB
83 - 62
Feb 13, 2025
UCSD @ CSUB
73 - 54
Dec 7, 2024
CSUB @ UCSD
60 - 81
Feb 29, 2024
UCSD @ CSUB
57 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+51.3% more
UC San Diego: 16.0
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 10.6
Steals (L5)
+39.6% more
UC San Diego: 7.0
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 5.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.9%
UC San Diego: 33.0%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 24.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
UC San Diego: 44.3%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 40.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUB Score
65.0
72
UCSD Score
86.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 24.1
36.0 / 14.0
Assists
16.0 / 10.6
15.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.6
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 40.1
50.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
73.6 / 78.0
69.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
37.2 / 35.7
37.0 / 26.0
Steals
7.0 / 5.0
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 12.5
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
UCSD
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSD
CSUB
UCSD
CSUB
ML
56%
19-15
55%
17-14
65%
22-12
71%
22-9
ATS
50%
17-17
61%
19-12
65%
22-12
71%
22-9
TTL
62%
21-13
58%
18-13
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
