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RHODE ISLAND

RAMSURI

15-12  |  Road

76
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 5:00 PM ET
Reilly Center
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ST. BONAVENTURE

BONNIESSBU

14-13  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
100%
📊
BONNIES
0%
RAMS --
BONNIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
ST. BONAVENTURE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (St. Bonaventure)
RamsURI (-3.5) 0 BonniesSBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

30.9%

Bonnies Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SBU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SBU)

URI By 1-7 points

18.6%

URI By 8-14 points

8.0%

SBU By 1-7 points

27.2%

SBU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
77
RHODE ISLAND
82
ST. BONAVENTURE
Simulated Score
68
RHODE ISLAND
72
ST. BONAVENTURE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bonnies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bonnies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bonnies (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Bonnies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 URI @ SBU 76 - 94
Feb 12, 2025 SBU @ URI 64 - 68
Jan 17, 2024 URI @ SBU 64 - 99
Jan 11, 2023 SBU @ URI 67 - 68
Feb 22, 2022 URI @ SBU 55 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +43.1% more
St. Bonaventure: 15.6 vs Rhode Island: 10.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.6%
St. Bonaventure: 40.7% vs Rhode Island: 27.1%
Blocks (L5) +13.4% more
St. Bonaventure: 4.6 vs Rhode Island: 4.0
Free Throw % (L5) +11.8%
St. Bonaventure: 79.7% vs Rhode Island: 67.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
URI Score 77.0 76
SBU Score 82.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.7 / 27.1 45.0 / 48.0
Assists 15.6 / 10.9 19.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.6 / 4.0 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 37.7 56.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 79.7 / 67.9 78.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 33.4 34.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.3 / 7.0 11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 11.5 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
URI
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.0
SBU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
URI Advantage
13-18-1 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.0
SBU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
URI
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -5.9
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SBU
URI
SBU
URI
ML
59% 20-14
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
ATS
50% 17-17
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
TTL
38% 13-21
56% 18-14
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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