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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

45-14  |  Road

116
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 7:30 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

42-14  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
PISTONS
0%
THUNDER --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
245.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Detroit)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

18.4%

Pistons Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

OKC By 1-7 points

12.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

4.0%

DET By 1-7 points

24.3%

DET By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
127
DETROIT
Simulated Score
105
OKLAHOMA CITY
120
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pistons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pistons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pistons (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Pistons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o220.0 Win
Proj Total: 245.0
D
Sim u220.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 DET @ OKC 110 - 114
Feb 25, 2026 OKC @ DET 116 - 124
Apr 2, 2025 DET @ OKC 103 - 119
Mar 15, 2025 OKC @ DET 113 - 107
Jan 28, 2024 OKC @ DET 104 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +51.3% more
Detroit: 6.8 vs Oklahoma City: 4.5
Turnovers (L5) +13.3% more
Oklahoma City: 16.8 vs Detroit: 14.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.5%
Oklahoma City: 41.3% vs Detroit: 32.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 118.0 116
DET Score 127.0 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 41.3 33.0 / 37.0
Assists 26.4 / 26.4 29.0 / 28.0
Blocks 6.8 / 4.5 12.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 46.4 54.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 79.8 / 78.7 73.0 / 95.0
Rebounding 49.2 / 46.0 52.0 / 37.0
Steals 9.6 / 9.7 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 16.8 17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DET
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
OKC
DET
OKC
ML
55% 64-53
70% 80-34
49% 47-49
48% 46-49
ATS
53% 60-54-3
73% 83-30-1
49% 47-49
48% 46-49
TTL
60% 70-46-1
67% 76-38
100% 96-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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