Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountain Hawks @ Eagles LEH @ AMER

LEHIGH

MOUNTAIN HAWKSLEH

13-16  |  Road

78
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Bender Arena
View Odds Details →

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

16-13  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAIN HAWKS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
MOUNTAIN HAWKS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Mountain HawksLEH (-3.5) 0 EaglesAMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountain Hawks Cover

46.0%

Eagles Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AMER +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AMER)

LEH By 1-7 points

26.2%

LEH By 8-14 points

16.9%

AMER By 1-7 points

24.3%

AMER By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
74
LEHIGH
73
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
68
LEHIGH
70
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mountain Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 LEH @ AMER 78 - 73
Feb 11, 2026 AMER @ LEH 82 - 90
Feb 8, 2025 AMER @ LEH 78 - 75
Jan 22, 2025 LEH @ AMER 67 - 68
Jan 20, 2024 AMER @ LEH 68 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +46.4% more
Lehigh: 2.8 vs American University: 1.5
Turnovers (L5) +20.4% more
Lehigh: 10.9 vs American University: 8.7
Assists (L5) +11.1% more
Lehigh: 14.7 vs American University: 13.1
Free Throw % (L5) +3.8%
Lehigh: 78.6% vs American University: 74.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LEH Score 74.0 78
AMER Score 73.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 36.1 29.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.1 / 14.7 10.0 / 17.0
Blocks 1.5 / 2.8 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 47.4 41.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 74.9 / 78.6 64.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 29.6 / 30.2 33.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.4 / 6.1 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 10.9 5.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LEH Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +1.0
AMER
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LEH Advantage
18-14-1 (56.3%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +1.0
AMER
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LEH
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: +4.5
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AMER
LEH
AMER
LEH
ML
62% 20-12
56% 19-15
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
ATS
59% 19-13
56% 19-15
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
TTL
59% 19-13
76% 26-8
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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