DRAKE
BULLDOGSDRKE
12-17 | Road
71
VALPARAISO
BEACONSVAL
16-13 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
BEACONS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
BEACONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
VALPARAISO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Valparaiso)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAL)
DRKE By 1-7 points
23.0%
DRKE By 8-14 points
12.2%
VAL By 1-7 points
26.8%
VAL By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Drake
71
DRAKE
Valparaiso
73
VALPARAISO
Simulated Score
Drake
75
DRAKE
Valparaiso
63
VALPARAISO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Beacons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Beacons (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
DRKE @ VAL
71 - 74
Feb 9, 2026
VAL @ DRKE
81 - 76
Jan 22, 2025
VAL @ DRKE
71 - 81
Dec 5, 2024
DRKE @ VAL
66 - 60
Jan 31, 2024
VAL @ DRKE
70 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+29.7% more
Valparaiso: 14.2
vs
Drake: 11.0
Steals (L5)
+12.4% more
Valparaiso: 4.7
vs
Drake: 4.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.9%
Valparaiso: 39.3%
vs
Drake: 31.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.8%
Valparaiso: 66.2%
vs
Drake: 62.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DRKE Score
71.0
71
VAL Score
73.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.3 / 31.4
43.0 / 36.0
Assists
14.2 / 11.0
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.8 / 4.0
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 41.9
44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
66.2 / 62.4
82.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
34.0 / 35.8
29.0 / 31.0
Steals
4.7 / 4.2
3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.2 / 11.2
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DRKE
14-20-0
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -0.5
VAL
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DRKE
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -0.5
VAL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
DRKE
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +3.9
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAL
DRKE
VAL
DRKE
ML
48%
16-17
59%
20-14
61%
20-13
38%
13-21
ATS
52%
17-16
85%
29-5
61%
20-13
38%
13-21
TTL
61%
20-13
56%
19-15
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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