Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Coyotes OMA @ SDAK

OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

15-14  |  Road

72
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Sanford Coyote Sports Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH DAKOTA

COYOTESSDAK

14-15  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
COYOTES
0%
MAVERICKS --
COYOTES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SOUTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (South Dakota)
MavericksOMA (-3.5) 0 CoyotesSDAK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

46.0%

Coyotes Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDAK -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDAK)

OMA By 1-7 points

24.3%

OMA By 8-14 points

13.7%

SDAK By 1-7 points

26.2%

SDAK By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
73
OMAHA
74
SOUTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
70
OMAHA
75
SOUTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Coyotes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Coyotes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Coyotes (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Coyotes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 OMA @ SDAK 76 - 62
Feb 25, 2026 OMA @ SDAK 72 - 89
Jan 21, 2026 SDAK @ OMA 68 - 64
Mar 8, 2025 SDAK @ OMA 75 - 100
Feb 22, 2025 SDAK @ OMA 85 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.3% more
South Dakota: 12.0 vs Omaha: 10.5
Blocks (L5) +37.3% more
Omaha: 3.7 vs South Dakota: 2.3
Assists (L5) +23.3% more
Omaha: 16.3 vs South Dakota: 12.5
Steals (L5) +21.4% more
Omaha: 5.5 vs South Dakota: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OMA Score 73.0 72
SDAK Score 74.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 23.9 / 45.1 40.0 / 36.0
Assists 12.5 / 16.3 14.0 / 5.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.7 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 51.3 48.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 67.8 / 74.4 77.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 31.3 / 33.2 33.0 / 35.0
Steals 4.3 / 5.5 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 10.5 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OMA
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
SDAK Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OMA
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
SDAK Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
SDAK
12-17-0
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDAK
OMA
SDAK
OMA
ML
70% 21-9
79% 26-7
63% 19-11
67% 22-11
ATS
70% 21-9
76% 25-8
63% 19-11
67% 22-11
TTL
67% 20-10
73% 24-9
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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