SAN DIEGO
TOREROSUSD
11-18 | Road
82
OREGON STATE
BEAVERSORST
15-14 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
TOREROS
100%
BEAVERS
0%
TOREROS
--
BEAVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Oregon State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORST -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)
USD By 1-7 points
4.0%
USD By 8-14 points
0.8%
ORST By 1-7 points
13.7%
ORST By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
69
SAN DIEGO
Oregon State
85
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
San Diego
68
SAN DIEGO
Oregon State
72
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Beavers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beavers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Beavers (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Beavers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
USD @ ORST
82 - 92
Jan 31, 2026
ORST @ USD
78 - 76
Feb 22, 2025
ORST @ USD
83 - 73
Jan 4, 2025
USD @ ORST
54 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+100.0% more
Oregon State: 3.2
vs
San Diego: 1.6
Rebounding (L5)
+32.1% more
Oregon State: 37.8
vs
San Diego: 28.6
Assists (L5)
+11.1% more
Oregon State: 16.5
vs
San Diego: 14.8
Steals (L5)
+40.1% more
San Diego: 7.3
vs
Oregon State: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USD Score
69.0
82
ORST Score
85.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 37.3
38.0 / 42.0
Assists
16.5 / 14.8
21.0 / 22.0
Blocks
3.2 / 1.6
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.8 / 44.8
51.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
68.3 / 70.6
85.0 / 57.0
Rebounding
37.8 / 28.6
40.0 / 30.0
Steals
4.4 / 7.3
4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 10.7
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
ORST
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USD
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
ORST
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
USD
ORST
USD
ML
45%
15-18
58%
19-14
59%
19-13
70%
23-10
ATS
48%
16-17
55%
18-15
59%
19-13
70%
23-10
TTL
55%
18-15
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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