CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BEARSCARK
18-11 | Road
93
AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
21-6 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
GOVERNORS
100%
BEARS
--
GOVERNORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Central Arkansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CARK -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)
CARK By 1-7 points
20.1%
CARK By 8-14 points
27.2%
APSU By 1-7 points
8.0%
APSU By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Central Arkansas
72
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Austin Peay
60
AUSTIN PEAY
Simulated Score
Central Arkansas
70
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Austin Peay
75
AUSTIN PEAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bears
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Governors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bears (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Governors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
CARK @ APSU
93 - 88
Feb 8, 2025
CARK @ APSU
67 - 90
Jan 23, 2025
APSU @ CARK
73 - 71
Feb 15, 2024
APSU @ CARK
77 - 67
Jan 20, 2024
CARK @ APSU
71 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+24.9% more
Central Arkansas: 2.9
vs
Austin Peay: 2.1
Steals (L5)
+23.9% more
Central Arkansas: 9.2
vs
Austin Peay: 7.0
Turnovers (L5)
+13.4% more
Central Arkansas: 9.9
vs
Austin Peay: 8.5
Assists (L5)
+9.6% more
Central Arkansas: 15.5
vs
Austin Peay: 14.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CARK Score
72.0
93
APSU Score
60.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 36.8
55.0 / 47.0
Assists
14.0 / 15.5
23.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.1 / 2.9
1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 43.9
56.0 / 58.0
Free Throw %
71.5 / 75.7
86.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 36.4
29.0 / 21.0
Steals
7.0 / 9.2
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 9.9
15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
APSU
Advantage
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK
Advantage
19-10-3
(65.5%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
APSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.9
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APSU
CARK
APSU
CARK
ML
53%
16-14
67%
22-11
59%
16-11
70%
23-10
ATS
57%
17-13
61%
20-13
59%
16-11
70%
23-10
TTL
57%
17-13
50%
16-16-1
100%
27-0
100%
33-0
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