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UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

23-4  |  Road

72
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 11:00 PM ET
Viejas Arena
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

18-8  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
AZTECS
0%
AGGIES --
AZTECS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego State)
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 AztecsSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

46.0%

Aztecs Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

USU By 1-7 points

24.3%

USU By 8-14 points

13.7%

SDSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

SDSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
78
UTAH STATE
79
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
68
UTAH STATE
72
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aztecs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aztecs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aztecs (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Aztecs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 SDSU @ USU 62 - 73
Feb 25, 2026 USU @ SDSU 72 - 89
Jan 31, 2026 SDSU @ USU 66 - 71
Feb 22, 2025 SDSU @ USU 71 - 79
Dec 28, 2024 USU @ SDSU 67 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +97.2% more
San Diego State: 4.3 vs Utah State: 2.2
Turnovers (L5) +20.4% more
San Diego State: 11.3 vs Utah State: 9.3
Free Throw % (L5) +14.1%
San Diego State: 82.9% vs Utah State: 68.9%
Assists (L5) +30.3% more
Utah State: 18.0 vs San Diego State: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 78.0 72
SDSU Score 79.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.6 / 40.0 44.0 / 30.0
Assists 12.5 / 18.0 18.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.3 / 2.2 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 49.0 55.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 82.9 / 68.9 67.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 31.4 38.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.4 / 8.4 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 9.3 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
SDSU
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
SDSU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
USU
SDSU
USU
ML
62% 20-12
49% 17-18
72% 23-9
66% 21-11
ATS
69% 22-10
74% 26-9
72% 23-9
67% 22-11
TTL
75% 24-8
51% 18-17
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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