Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Catamounts MER @ WCU

MERCER

BEARSMER

18-11  |  Road

74
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Ramsey Center
View Odds Details →

WESTERN CAROLINA

CATAMOUNTSWCU

12-15  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
CATAMOUNTS
0%
BEARS --
CATAMOUNTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
WESTERN CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Western Carolina)
BearsMER (-3.5) 0 CatamountsWCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

18.4%

Catamounts Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WCU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WCU)

MER By 1-7 points

12.2%

MER By 8-14 points

4.0%

WCU By 1-7 points

24.3%

WCU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
MERCER
83
WESTERN CAROLINA
Simulated Score
72
MERCER
75
WESTERN CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Catamounts Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Catamounts Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Catamounts (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Catamounts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 WCU @ MER 77 - 73
Feb 25, 2026 MER @ WCU 74 - 78
Jan 21, 2026 WCU @ MER 76 - 88
Mar 7, 2025 WCU @ MER 66 - 67
Mar 1, 2025 WCU @ MER 69 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +16.5% more
Western Carolina: 14.6 vs Mercer: 12.5
Rebounding (L5) +14.5% more
Western Carolina: 37.7 vs Mercer: 32.9
Steals (L5) +11.3% more
Western Carolina: 5.3 vs Mercer: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5) +6.8%
Western Carolina: 76.5% vs Mercer: 69.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MER Score 74.0 74
WCU Score 83.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 41.2 28.0 / 17.0
Assists 14.6 / 12.5 6.0 / 4.0
Blocks 2.1 / 3.7 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 52.2 45.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 76.5 / 69.7 93.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 32.9 31.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.3 / 4.8 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 7.4 / 10.1 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
WCU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER Advantage
19-10-0 (65.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
WCU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.3
WCU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WCU
MER
WCU
MER
ML
63% 19-11
55% 17-14
76% 22-7
71% 22-9
ATS
73% 22-8
58% 18-13
77% 23-7
71% 22-9
TTL
67% 20-10
61% 19-12
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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