Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Raiders @ Mastodons WRST @ PFW

WRIGHT STATE

RAIDERSWRST

18-11  |  Road

74
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Memorial Coliseum (IN)
View Odds Details →

PURDUE FORT WAYNE

MASTODONSPFW

16-13  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
📊
MASTODONS
0%
RAIDERS --
MASTODONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Purdue Fort Wayne)
RaidersWRST (-3.5) 0 MastodonsPFW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

27.4%

Mastodons Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PFW -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PFW)

WRST By 1-7 points

16.9%

WRST By 8-14 points

6.8%

PFW By 1-7 points

26.8%

PFW By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
79
WRIGHT STATE
85
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Simulated Score
78
WRIGHT STATE
72
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mastodons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mastodons (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Raiders (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 WRST @ PFW 74 - 70
Feb 7, 2026 PFW @ WRST 68 - 73
Feb 5, 2025 WRST @ PFW 64 - 87
Jan 15, 2025 PFW @ WRST 120 - 113
Feb 28, 2024 PFW @ WRST 79 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +31.3% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 14.2 vs Wright State: 10.8
Steals (L5) +16.8% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 7.6 vs Wright State: 6.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Purdue Fort Wayne: 39.8% vs Wright State: 37.7%
Blocks (L5) +44.9% more
Wright State: 3.5 vs Purdue Fort Wayne: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WRST Score 79.0 74
PFW Score 85.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 37.7 23.0 / 47.0
Assists 14.2 / 10.8 9.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.9 / 3.5 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.6 / 48.7 40.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 66.3 / 80.9 63.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 29.3 / 32.8 37.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.5 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 12.7 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WRST Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +2.0
PFW
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WRST Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +2.0
PFW
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WRST
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +3.3
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PFW
WRST
PFW
WRST
ML
59% 19-13
37% 13-22
74% 23-8
63% 22-13
ATS
62% 20-12
46% 16-19
74% 23-8
63% 22-13
TTL
59% 19-13
63% 22-13
100% 31-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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