Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Dukes DAV @ DUQ

DAVIDSON

WILDCATSDAV

16-11  |  Road

67
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 7:00 PM ET
UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

DUQUESNE

DUKESDUQ

16-11  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
DUKES
0%
WILDCATS --
DUKES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DUQUESNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Duquesne)
WildcatsDAV (-3.5) 0 DukesDUQ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

46.0%

Dukes Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DUQ -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUQ)

DAV By 1-7 points

24.3%

DAV By 8-14 points

13.7%

DUQ By 1-7 points

26.2%

DUQ By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
66
DAVIDSON
67
DUQUESNE
Simulated Score
66
DAVIDSON
71
DUQUESNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dukes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dukes (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Dukes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 DAV @ DUQ 67 - 56
Dec 30, 2025 DUQ @ DAV 89 - 83
Jan 4, 2025 DUQ @ DAV 71 - 77
Feb 7, 2024 DAV @ DUQ 72 - 59
Feb 26, 2023 DAV @ DUQ 71 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +63.8% more
Duquesne: 6.9 vs Davidson: 4.2
Free Throw % (L5) +17.2%
Duquesne: 72.7% vs Davidson: 55.5%
Blocks (L5) +40.2% more
Davidson: 4.3 vs Duquesne: 2.6
Assists (L5) +21.7% more
Davidson: 14.7 vs Duquesne: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAV Score 66.0 67
DUQ Score 67.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 39.3 21.0 / 26.0
Assists 11.5 / 14.7 11.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.6 / 4.3 4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 45.7 36.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 72.7 / 55.5 64.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 31.8 / 34.6 33.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.9 / 4.2 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 11.7 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAV Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
DUQ
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAV
13-17-2 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
DUQ Advantage
14-16-1 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAV
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -2.6
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUQ
DAV
DUQ
DAV
ML
53% 17-15
64% 21-12
58% 18-13
58% 19-14
ATS
69% 22-10
48% 16-17
58% 18-13
58% 19-14
TTL
50% 16-16
52% 17-16
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 7 hours, 31 minutes ago
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
si 1 day, 7 hours ago
Kentucky's AP Poll Exit Exposes Uphill Battle for National Respe…
yahoo 3 days, 1 hour ago
Arizona's Gio Richardson Exits Cincinnati Game After Brief Retur…
headtopics 4 days, 19 hours ago
Northwestern Opens Ryan Field with Record-Breaking Debut Against…
si 6 days, 2 hours ago