Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Bulldogs MORG @ SCST

MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

11-14  |  Road

90
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 6:00 PM ET
Smith-Hammond-Middleton Memorial Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA STATE

BULLDOGSSCST

7-19  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
BEARS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (South Carolina State)
BearsMORG (-3.5) 0 BulldogsSCST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

42.1%

Bulldogs Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SCST -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SCST)

MORG By 1-7 points

23.0%

MORG By 8-14 points

12.2%

SCST By 1-7 points

26.8%

SCST By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
74
MORGAN STATE
76
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Simulated Score
68
MORGAN STATE
72
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 MORG @ SCST 90 - 83
Jan 10, 2026 SCST @ MORG 67 - 72
Feb 15, 2025 MORG @ SCST 62 - 90
Jan 4, 2025 SCST @ MORG 86 - 72
Mar 2, 2024 SCST @ MORG 72 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +40.4% more
South Carolina State: 7.7 vs Morgan State: 5.5
Turnovers (L5) +24.0% more
South Carolina State: 15.7 vs Morgan State: 12.7
Rebounding (L5) +29.8% more
Morgan State: 40.9 vs South Carolina State: 28.7
Blocks (L5) +23.4% more
Morgan State: 4.2 vs South Carolina State: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 74.0 90
SCST Score 76.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 35.3 20.0 / 60.0
Assists 13.6 / 15.1 19.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.2 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 43.6 49.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 75.9 / 74.7 62.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 28.7 / 40.9 25.0 / 26.0
Steals 7.7 / 5.5 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.7 / 12.7 9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
SCST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG Advantage
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
SCST
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -11.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
SCST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SCST
MORG
SCST
MORG
ML
61% 19-12
50% 14-14
74% 20-7
58% 14-10
ATS
68% 21-10
50% 14-14
74% 20-7
58% 14-10
TTL
52% 16-15
50% 14-14
100% 27-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
UCLA's Unlikely Heroes: TaShawn James, Jalen Woods, and Semaj Mo…
si 5 days, 14 hours ago
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
si 5 days, 14 hours ago
Kirby Smart Stays Silent on Nate Frazier's Injury Status as Geor…
si 1 week, 3 days ago
Georgia Bulldogs Set to Clash with Oklahoma Sooners as Heavy Fav…
si 2 weeks, 2 days ago
Georgia Bulldogs Release Availability Report for SEC Opener at A…
headtopics 3 weeks ago