KANSAS STATE
WILDCATSKSU
11-16 | Road
70
COLORADO
BUFFALOESCOLO
15-12 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
BUFFALOES
100%
WILDCATS
--
BUFFALOES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Kansas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around KSU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)
KSU By 1-7 points
25.3%
KSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
COLO By 1-7 points
13.7%
COLO By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas State
81
KANSAS STATE
Colorado
73
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Kansas State
68
KANSAS STATE
Colorado
72
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Buffaloes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Buffaloes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
KSU @ COLO
70 - 79
Mar 2, 2025
COLO @ KSU
56 - 65
Nov 27, 2020
COLO @ KSU
76 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+13.9% more
Kansas State: 12.4
vs
Colorado: 10.7
Assists (L5)
+21.7% more
Colorado: 15.9
vs
Kansas State: 13.1
Rebounding (L5)
+16.2% more
Colorado: 34.9
vs
Kansas State: 30.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KSU Score
81.0
70
COLO Score
73.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 34.6
36.0 / 22.0
Assists
15.9 / 13.1
16.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.8 / 2.9
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 45.3
43.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
68.6 / 67.9
71.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
34.9 / 30.1
43.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.5 / 7.2
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 12.4
17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -2.9
COLO
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -2.9
COLO
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +0.1
COLO
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
KSU
COLO
KSU
ML
61%
20-13
59%
19-13
69%
22-10
69%
22-10
ATS
73%
24-9
62%
20-12
69%
22-10
69%
22-10
TTL
45%
15-18
47%
15-17
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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