PORTLAND
PILOTSPORT
12-17 | Road
48
GONZAGA
BULLDOGSGONZ
27-2 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
PILOTS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
PILOTS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Gonzaga)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GONZ -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)
PORT By 1-7 points
3.3%
PORT By 8-14 points
0.6%
GONZ By 1-7 points
12.2%
GONZ By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
67
PORTLAND
Gonzaga
84
GONZAGA
Simulated Score
Portland
68
PORTLAND
Gonzaga
90
GONZAGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+26.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
PORT @ GONZ
48 - 89
Feb 4, 2026
GONZ @ PORT
80 - 87
Jan 25, 2025
GONZ @ PORT
105 - 62
Jan 2, 2025
PORT @ GONZ
50 - 81
Feb 22, 2024
GONZ @ PORT
86 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+80.0% more
Gonzaga: 4.7
vs
Portland: 2.6
Rebounding (L5)
+21.3% more
Gonzaga: 34.4
vs
Portland: 28.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Gonzaga: 50.0%
vs
Portland: 46.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+54.8% more
Portland: 15.0
vs
Gonzaga: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PORT Score
67.0
48
GONZ Score
84.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.9 / 29.3
39.0 / 20.0
Assists
14.7 / 13.9
25.0 / 6.0
Blocks
4.7 / 2.6
4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
50.0 / 46.0
52.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
72.8 / 78.4
82.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
34.4 / 28.3
33.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.9 / 7.5
12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
6.8 / 15.0
10.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PORT
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.2
GONZ
Advantage
31-4-0
(88.6%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PORT
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.2
GONZ
Advantage
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.0
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GONZ
PORT
GONZ
PORT
ML
71%
25-10
48%
16-17
69%
20-9
82%
27-6
ATS
69%
24-11
67%
22-11
69%
20-9
82%
28-6
TTL
57%
20-15
55%
18-15
100%
29-0
100%
34-0
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