Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rebels @ Lopes UNLV @ GCU

UNLV

REBELSUNLV

14-13  |  Road

67
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 9:00 PM ET
Global Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

17-10  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
0%
📊
LOPES
100%
REBELS --
LOPES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RebelsUNLV (-3.5) 0 LopesGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

24.2%

Lopes Cover

75.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GCU +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)

UNLV By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNLV By 8-14 points

25.3%

GCU By 1-7 points

15.3%

GCU By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
71
UNLV
64
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
72
UNLV
78
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rebels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lopes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lopes (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim Lopes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 UNLV @ GCU 67 - 80
Feb 7, 2026 GCU @ UNLV 78 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +30.9% more
UNLV: 4.4 vs Grand Canyon: 3.0
Assists (L5) +25.3% more
UNLV: 15.7 vs Grand Canyon: 11.7
Steals (L5) +21.5% more
UNLV: 7.7 vs Grand Canyon: 6.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.0%
UNLV: 42.7% vs Grand Canyon: 32.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 71.0 67
GCU Score 64.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 42.7 47.0 / 41.0
Assists 11.7 / 15.7 11.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.0 / 4.4 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 52.7 53.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 75.9 / 76.4 74.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 31.7 41.0 / 27.0
Steals 6.0 / 7.7 1.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 7.9 13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
GCU Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
GCU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
UNLV
GCU
UNLV
ML
66% 21-11
50% 17-17
68% 21-10
59% 20-14
ATS
72% 23-9
65% 22-12
68% 21-10
59% 20-14
TTL
44% 14-18
62% 21-13
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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