Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Buckeyes @ Hawkeyes OSU @ IOWA

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

17-10  |  Road

57
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 9:00 PM ET
Carver-Hawkeye Arena
View Odds Details →

IOWA

HAWKEYESIOWA

19-8  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKEYES
100%
📊
HAWKEYES
0%
BUCKEYES --
HAWKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Iowa)
BuckeyesOSU (-3.5) 0 HawkeyesIOWA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buckeyes Cover

11.5%

Hawkeyes Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IOWA -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

OSU By 1-7 points

8.0%

OSU By 8-14 points

2.2%

IOWA By 1-7 points

20.1%

IOWA By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
64
OHIO STATE
76
IOWA
Simulated Score
68
OHIO STATE
85
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hawkeyes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawkeyes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawkeyes (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Hawkeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 IOWA @ OSU 69 - 72
Feb 25, 2026 OSU @ IOWA 57 - 74
Mar 12, 2025 IOWA @ OSU 77 - 70
Jan 27, 2025 IOWA @ OSU 65 - 82
Mar 14, 2024 OSU @ IOWA 90 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.9%
Iowa: 77.5% vs Ohio State: 69.6%
Blocks (L5) +26.0% more
Ohio State: 2.4 vs Iowa: 1.8
Turnovers (L5) +9.9% more
Ohio State: 9.4 vs Iowa: 8.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Ohio State: 34.2% vs Iowa: 28.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OSU Score 64.0 57
IOWA Score 76.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.7 / 34.2 28.0 / 50.0
Assists 11.2 / 11.5 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.8 / 2.4 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 47.2 57.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 77.5 / 69.6 88.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 30.3 / 29.6 28.0 / 23.0
Steals 4.4 / 4.8 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.5 / 9.4 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
IOWA Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
IOWA Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
OSU
IOWA
OSU
ML
59% 22-15
53% 18-16
78% 28-8
73% 24-9
ATS
76% 28-9
59% 20-14
78% 28-8
73% 24-9
TTL
57% 21-16
56% 19-15
100% 36-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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