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MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

13-14  |  Road

75
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 9:00 PM ET
Coleman Coliseum
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

20-7  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
BULLDOGS --
CRIMSON TIDE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Alabama)
BulldogsMSST (-3.5) 0 Crimson TideALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

18.4%

Crimson Tide Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

MSST By 1-7 points

12.2%

MSST By 8-14 points

4.0%

ALA By 1-7 points

24.3%

ALA By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
73
MISSISSIPPI STATE
82
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
72
MISSISSIPPI STATE
78
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Crimson Tide Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Crimson Tide (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u176.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u176.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 MSST @ ALA 75 - 100
Jan 13, 2026 ALA @ MSST 97 - 82
Feb 25, 2025 MSST @ ALA 73 - 111
Jan 29, 2025 ALA @ MSST 88 - 84
Feb 3, 2024 MSST @ ALA 67 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +19.1% more
Alabama: 9.9 vs Mississippi State: 8.3
Free Throw % (L5) +16.2%
Alabama: 79.3% vs Mississippi State: 63.1%
Rebounding (L5) +12.6% more
Alabama: 40.5 vs Mississippi State: 36.0
Steals (L5) +11.4% more
Alabama: 5.6 vs Mississippi State: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 73.0 75
ALA Score 82.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 37.5 44.0 / 37.0
Assists 16.1 / 14.9 23.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.4 / 4.0 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 47.5 48.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 79.3 / 63.1 77.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 40.5 / 36.0 48.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.6 / 5.0 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 8.3 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
ALA Advantage
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
ALA Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
MSST
ALA
MSST
ML
63% 22-13
66% 21-11
58% 19-14
55% 17-14
ATS
60% 21-14
56% 18-14
58% 19-14
55% 17-14
TTL
63% 22-13
59% 19-13
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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