UL MONROE
WARHAWKSULM
4-25 | Road
54
SOUTH ALABAMA
JAGUARSUSA
20-9 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
WARHAWKS
0%
JAGUARS
100%
WARHAWKS
--
JAGUARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USA +10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)
ULM By 1-7 points
23.0%
ULM By 8-14 points
27.2%
USA By 1-7 points
10.7%
USA By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UL Monroe
79
UL MONROE
South Alabama
69
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
UL Monroe
70
UL MONROE
South Alabama
75
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warhawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jaguars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jaguars (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
D
Sim
Jaguars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
ULM @ USA
54 - 89
Dec 17, 2025
USA @ ULM
96 - 92
Jan 30, 2025
ULM @ USA
62 - 58
Jan 27, 2025
USA @ ULM
66 - 77
Mar 1, 2024
ULM @ USA
69 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+26.5% more
UL Monroe: 11.0
vs
South Alabama: 8.1
Blocks (L5)
+20.4% more
UL Monroe: 3.0
vs
South Alabama: 2.4
Assists (L5)
+9.4% more
UL Monroe: 14.7
vs
South Alabama: 13.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
UL Monroe: 71.3%
vs
South Alabama: 67.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ULM Score
79.0
54
USA Score
69.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 34.0
44.0 / 22.0
Assists
13.3 / 14.7
19.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.4 / 3.0
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 46.1
58.0 / 29.0
Free Throw %
67.8 / 71.3
71.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
32.8 / 32.3
41.0 / 26.0
Steals
8.2 / 6.2
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.1 / 11.0
11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
4-28-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
USA
Advantage
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
USA
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
ULM
USA
ULM
ML
47%
15-17
50%
16-16
57%
17-13
70%
21-9
ATS
53%
17-15
78%
25-7
57%
17-13
70%
21-9
TTL
66%
21-11
59%
19-13
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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