Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulls @ Owls USF @ RICE

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

19-8  |  Road

75
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 8:00 PM ET
Tudor Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

RICE

OWLSRICE

11-16  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
📊
OWLS
100%
BULLS --
OWLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (South Florida)
BullsUSF (-3.5) 0 OwlsRICE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

91.9%

Owls Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USF -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

USF By 1-7 points

16.9%

USF By 8-14 points

26.2%

RICE By 1-7 points

5.8%

RICE By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
79
SOUTH FLORIDA
65
RICE
Simulated Score
65
SOUTH FLORIDA
72
RICE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulls Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Owls Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulls (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Owls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 USF @ RICE 75 - 56
Jan 28, 2025 RICE @ USF 64 - 69
Feb 10, 2024 USF @ RICE 69 - 65
Jan 12, 2024 RICE @ USF 73 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.0% more
South Florida: 4.7 vs Rice: 2.8
Steals (L5) +23.9% more
South Florida: 6.9 vs Rice: 5.2
Rebounding (L5) +22.6% more
South Florida: 45.0 vs Rice: 34.8
Assists (L5) +10.2% more
South Florida: 14.4 vs Rice: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 79.0 75
RICE Score 65.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 32.4 40.0 / 29.0
Assists 12.9 / 14.4 9.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.8 / 4.7 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 41.3 36.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 74.4 71.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 45.0 37.0 / 40.0
Steals 5.2 / 6.9 7.0 / 17.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 11.0 23.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
RICE
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
RICE Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
RICE
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
USF
RICE
USF
ML
53% 16-14
61% 20-13
53% 16-14
52% 16-15
ATS
60% 18-12
61% 20-13
53% 16-14
52% 16-15
TTL
77% 23-7
52% 17-16
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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