GEORGE MASON
PATRIOTSGMU
21-6 | Road
63
SAINT JOSEPH'S
HAWKSJOES
17-10 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
100%
HAWKS
0%
PATRIOTS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Saint Joseph's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JOES -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JOES)
GMU By 1-7 points
8.0%
GMU By 8-14 points
2.2%
JOES By 1-7 points
20.1%
JOES By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
George Mason
61
GEORGE MASON
Saint Joseph's
73
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Simulated Score
George Mason
69
GEORGE MASON
Saint Joseph's
73
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u135.5
Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
GMU @ JOES
63 - 81
Feb 7, 2026
JOES @ GMU
52 - 60
Mar 15, 2025
JOES @ GMU
64 - 74
Feb 15, 2025
JOES @ GMU
57 - 58
Mar 13, 2024
JOES @ GMU
64 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+47.7% more
Saint Joseph's: 16.4
vs
George Mason: 11.1
Rebounding (L5)
+29.7% more
Saint Joseph's: 38.9
vs
George Mason: 30.0
Blocks (L5)
+26.1% more
Saint Joseph's: 4.4
vs
George Mason: 3.5
Steals (L5)
+16.8% more
Saint Joseph's: 4.8
vs
George Mason: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GMU Score
61.0
63
JOES Score
73.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.9 / 36.7
37.0 / 25.0
Assists
16.4 / 11.1
18.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.5
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 43.2
52.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
72.4 / 72.9
67.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
38.9 / 30.0
26.0 / 36.0
Steals
4.8 / 4.1
6.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 11.2
3.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GMU
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -1.2
JOES
24-12-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GMU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -1.2
JOES
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -1.7
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JOES
GMU
JOES
GMU
ML
51%
18-17
55%
18-15
61%
20-13
73%
24-9
ATS
60%
21-14
55%
18-15
61%
20-13
73%
24-9
TTL
54%
19-16
58%
19-14
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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