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ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

18-11  |  Road

71
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 7:00 PM ET
McLeod Center
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN IOWA

PANTHERSUNI

18-11  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
REDBIRDS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Northern Iowa)
RedbirdsILST (-3.5) 0 PanthersUNI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Redbirds Cover

24.2%

Panthers Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNI -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)

ILST By 1-7 points

15.3%

ILST By 8-14 points

5.8%

UNI By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNI By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
73
ILLINOIS STATE
80
NORTHERN IOWA
Simulated Score
69
ILLINOIS STATE
74
NORTHERN IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o131.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 UNI @ ILST 74 - 52
Feb 25, 2026 ILST @ UNI 71 - 69
Jan 21, 2026 UNI @ ILST 54 - 59
Feb 8, 2025 ILST @ UNI 65 - 68
Jan 11, 2025 UNI @ ILST 85 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +105.8% more
Northern Iowa: 3.2 vs Illinois State: 1.6
Steals (L5) +66.9% more
Northern Iowa: 8.0 vs Illinois State: 4.8
Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Northern Iowa: 50.2% vs Illinois State: 45.7%
Turnovers (L5) +29.7% more
Illinois State: 14.3 vs Northern Iowa: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILST Score 73.0 71
UNI Score 80.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 36.3 56.0 / 37.0
Assists 13.3 / 13.6 13.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.2 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 50.2 / 45.7 50.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 72.0 63.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 28.6 / 32.4 26.0 / 32.0
Steals 8.0 / 4.8 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 14.3 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
UNI
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 7.7 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
UNI
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 7.7 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNI
ILST
UNI
ILST
ML
51% 18-17
42% 15-21
56% 19-15
71% 24-10
ATS
49% 17-18
58% 21-15
56% 19-15
71% 24-10
TTL
69% 24-11
58% 21-15
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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