FLORIDA
GATORSFLA
21-6 | Road
84
TEXAS
LONGHORNSTEX
17-10 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
GATORS
0%
LONGHORNS
100%
GATORS
--
LONGHORNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TEX +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
FLA By 1-7 points
26.2%
FLA By 8-14 points
25.3%
TEX By 1-7 points
15.3%
TEX By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
80
FLORIDA
Texas
73
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Florida
72
FLORIDA
Texas
75
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Gators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Longhorns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Longhorns (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim
Longhorns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
FLA @ TEX
84 - 71
Jan 18, 2025
TEX @ FLA
60 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+44.8% more
Florida: 19.6
vs
Texas: 10.8
Steals (L5)
+41.3% more
Florida: 7.3
vs
Texas: 4.3
Turnovers (L5)
+35.7% more
Florida: 14.1
vs
Texas: 9.1
Rebounding (L5)
+29.6% more
Florida: 43.4
vs
Texas: 30.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
80.0
84
TEX Score
73.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
44.2 / 37.3
38.0 / 44.0
Assists
10.8 / 19.6
2.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.6 / 3.3
1.0 / 11.0
Field Goal %
53.7 / 50.8
43.0 / 59.0
Free Throw %
77.7 / 76.7
76.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
30.6 / 43.4
30.0 / 29.0
Steals
4.3 / 7.3
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 14.1
12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FLA
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
TEX
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FLA
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
TEX
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8%
Total +/-: -1.9
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
FLA
TEX
FLA
ML
58%
21-15
77%
27-8
56%
19-15
63%
22-13
ATS
56%
20-16
69%
24-11
56%
19-15
63%
22-13
TTL
64%
23-13
63%
22-13
100%
34-0
100%
35-0
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