ST. JOHN'S
RED STORMSJU
22-5 | Road
40
UCONN
HUSKIESCONN
25-3 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
RED STORM
0%
HUSKIES
100%
RED STORM
--
HUSKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (St. John's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SJU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)
SJU By 1-7 points
4.0%
SJU By 8-14 points
12.2%
CONN By 1-7 points
0.6%
CONN By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
St. John's
87
ST. JOHN'S
UConn
63
UCONN
Simulated Score
St. John's
70
ST. JOHN'S
UConn
82
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Storm
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Huskies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Storm (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Huskies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
CONN @ SJU
52 - 72
Feb 25, 2026
SJU @ CONN
40 - 72
Feb 6, 2026
CONN @ SJU
72 - 81
Feb 23, 2025
CONN @ SJU
75 - 89
Feb 7, 2025
SJU @ CONN
68 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+41.7% more
St. John's: 8.3
vs
UConn: 4.9
Rebounding (L5)
+15.6% more
St. John's: 41.7
vs
UConn: 35.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.3%
St. John's: 75.1%
vs
UConn: 71.8%
Blocks (L5)
+28.3% more
UConn: 5.8
vs
St. John's: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SJU Score
87.0
40
CONN Score
63.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 26.9
28.0 / 25.0
Assists
19.7 / 17.1
20.0 / 8.0
Blocks
5.8 / 4.5
9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.4 / 44.3
47.0 / 20.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 75.1
82.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 41.7
41.0 / 37.0
Steals
4.9 / 8.3
6.0 / 0.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 9.6
5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJU
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
CONN
Advantage
34-6-0
(85.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJU
Advantage
22-13-1
(62.9%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
CONN
18-22-0
(45.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9%
Total +/-: -3.6
CONN
19-21-0
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5%
Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
SJU
CONN
SJU
ML
76%
29-9
62%
18-11
66%
23-12
62%
18-11
ATS
74%
28-10
66%
19-10
66%
23-12
62%
18-11
TTL
50%
19-19
59%
17-12
100%
35-0
100%
29-0
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