Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Wildcats BUT @ VILL

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

15-13  |  Road

73
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Finneran Pavilion
View Odds Details →

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

21-6  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
BULLDOGS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
VILLANOVA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BulldogsBUT (-3.5) 0 WildcatsVILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

18.4%

Wildcats Cover

81.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VILL +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VILL)

BUT By 1-7 points

24.3%

BUT By 8-14 points

26.8%

VILL By 1-7 points

12.2%

VILL By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
77
BUTLER
68
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
68
BUTLER
72
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 BUT @ VILL 73 - 82
Jan 3, 2026 VILL @ BUT 85 - 67
Mar 1, 2025 BUT @ VILL 70 - 80
Jan 1, 2025 VILL @ BUT 73 - 65
Feb 20, 2024 BUT @ VILL 62 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.7%
Butler: 72.9% vs Villanova: 65.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Butler: 45.0% vs Villanova: 43.3%
Steals (L5) +105.4% more
Villanova: 9.1 vs Butler: 4.5
Blocks (L5) +18.5% more
Villanova: 2.9 vs Butler: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUT Score 77.0 73
VILL Score 68.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 31.2 31.0 / 23.0
Assists 16.2 / 15.5 17.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.5 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 45.0 49.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 65.3 / 72.9 71.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 33.3 28.0 / 38.0
Steals 9.1 / 4.5 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 7.7 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
VILL Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
VILL Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
BUT
VILL
BUT
ML
44% 14-18
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
65% 20-11
ATS
56% 18-14
56% 18-14
72% 23-9
65% 20-11
TTL
41% 13-19
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 8 hours, 18 minutes ago
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
si 1 day, 8 hours ago
Aden Holloway Reinstated to Alabama Basketball Roster, Suspended…
saturdaydownsouth 2 days, 8 hours ago
Kentucky's AP Poll Exit Exposes Uphill Battle for National Respe…
yahoo 3 days, 2 hours ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 8 hours ago