SAINT FRANCIS
RED FLASHSFPA
6-22 | Road
73
NEW HAVEN
CHARGERSNHVN
13-15 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
RED FLASH
100%
CHARGERS
0%
RED FLASH
--
CHARGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NEW HAVEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (New Haven)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NHVN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NHVN)
SFPA By 1-7 points
20.1%
SFPA By 8-14 points
9.3%
NHVN By 1-7 points
27.4%
NHVN By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Francis
63
SAINT FRANCIS
New Haven
67
NEW HAVEN
Simulated Score
Saint Francis
71
SAINT FRANCIS
New Haven
75
NEW HAVEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Chargers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Chargers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Chargers (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Chargers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 24, 2026
SFPA @ NHVN
73 - 67
Jan 31, 2026
NHVN @ SFPA
81 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+73.3% more
New Haven: 2.0
vs
Saint Francis: 1.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
New Haven: 48.9%
vs
Saint Francis: 43.5%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.0%
New Haven: 66.3%
vs
Saint Francis: 63.3%
Turnovers (L5)
+32.0% more
Saint Francis: 13.9
vs
New Haven: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SFPA Score
63.0
73
NHVN Score
67.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 38.5
32.0 / 25.0
Assists
11.0 / 13.2
12.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.0 / 1.2
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 43.5
45.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
66.3 / 63.3
56.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
30.1 / 32.0
20.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.6 / 8.7
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 13.9
6.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFPA
7-24-0
(22.6%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -1.7
NHVN
Advantage
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFPA
13-15-1
(46.4%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -1.7
NHVN
Advantage
15-13-0
(53.6%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +5.8
NHVN
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NHVN
SFPA
NHVN
SFPA
ML
71%
22-9
68%
21-10
68%
21-10
67%
20-10
ATS
74%
23-8
68%
21-10
68%
21-10
67%
20-10
TTL
42%
13-18
58%
18-13
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
