Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Pelicans GS @ NO

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

30-27  |  Road

109
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

16-42  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
WARRIORS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

90.3%

Pelicans Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

18.6%

GS By 8-14 points

26.8%

NO By 1-7 points

6.8%

NO By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
117
GOLDEN STATE
104
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
112
GOLDEN STATE
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+1) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u228.0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim u228.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 GS @ NO 109 - 113
Nov 29, 2025 NO @ GS 96 - 104
Nov 16, 2025 GS @ NO 124 - 106
Mar 28, 2025 GS @ NO 111 - 95
Nov 22, 2024 GS @ NO 112 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +36.4% more
Golden State: 10.9 vs New Orleans: 6.9
Assists (L5) +25.9% more
Golden State: 34.5 vs New Orleans: 25.6
Turnovers (L5) +9.9% more
Golden State: 15.2 vs New Orleans: 13.7
Blocks (L5) +116.2% more
New Orleans: 5.7 vs Golden State: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 117.0 109
NO Score 104.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 36.2 25.0 / 24.0
Assists 25.6 / 34.5 20.0 / 26.0
Blocks 5.7 / 2.7 9.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 47.7 43.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 75.5 / 74.3 74.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 43.2 / 41.3 53.0 / 59.0
Steals 6.9 / 10.9 12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 15.2 17.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
GS
NO
GS
ML
62% 98-61
55% 95-79
58% 48-35
58% 49-35
ATS
68% 107-51-1
58% 101-73
58% 48-35
58% 49-35
TTL
75% 119-40
77% 134-40
100% 83-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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