OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
44-14 | Road
116
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
34-23 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
RAPTORS
100%
THUNDER
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
OKC By 1-7 points
13.7%
OKC By 8-14 points
24.3%
TOR By 1-7 points
4.0%
TOR By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Toronto
102
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
108
OKLAHOMA CITY
Toronto
122
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thunder (-2)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o216.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Sim
u216.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 24, 2026
OKC @ TOR
116 - 107
Jan 25, 2026
TOR @ OKC
103 - 101
Feb 7, 2025
TOR @ OKC
109 - 121
Dec 5, 2024
OKC @ TOR
129 - 92
Mar 22, 2024
OKC @ TOR
123 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+21.0% more
Oklahoma City: 15.7
vs
Toronto: 12.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.8%
Oklahoma City: 42.0%
vs
Toronto: 34.2%
Steals (L5)
+12.0% more
Toronto: 10.7
vs
Oklahoma City: 9.6
Blocks (L5)
+10.0% more
Toronto: 4.7
vs
Oklahoma City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
118.0
116
TOR Score
102.0
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 42.0
47.0 / 40.0
Assists
28.6 / 26.5
30.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.3
8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 46.0
47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
81.5 / 76.6
58.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
43.6 / 44.5
34.0 / 49.0
Steals
10.7 / 9.6
10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 15.7
16.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
OKC
TOR
OKC
ML
55%
57-47
70%
80-34
55%
48-39
48%
46-49
ATS
61%
62-40-2
73%
83-30-1
55%
48-39
48%
46-49
TTL
60%
62-42
67%
76-38
100%
87-0
100%
95-0
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