SAN JOSÉ STATE
SPARTANSSJSU
7-20 | Road
86
AIR FORCE
FALCONSAF
3-24 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
FALCONS
100%
SPARTANS
--
FALCONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (San José State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SJSU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)
SJSU By 1-7 points
24.3%
SJSU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AF By 1-7 points
12.2%
AF By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
San José State
82
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Air Force
73
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
San José State
65
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Air Force
68
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spartans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spartans (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Falcons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 24, 2026
SJSU @ AF
86 - 80
Jan 13, 2026
AF @ SJSU
62 - 70
Feb 1, 2025
AF @ SJSU
64 - 75
Jan 11, 2025
SJSU @ AF
69 - 62
Feb 13, 2024
AF @ SJSU
66 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+54.9% more
San José State: 2.2
vs
Air Force: 1.0
Steals (L5)
+16.7% more
San José State: 5.2
vs
Air Force: 4.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.2%
San José State: 82.7%
vs
Air Force: 71.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
San José State: 44.6%
vs
Air Force: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score
82.0
86
AF Score
73.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.8 / 34.4
36.0 / 54.0
Assists
13.9 / 11.4
16.0 / 11.0
Blocks
1.0 / 2.2
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
40.9 / 44.6
51.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
71.5 / 82.7
64.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
28.8 / 28.6
32.0 / 31.0
Steals
4.3 / 5.2
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.2 / 8.5
10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
Advantage
9-24-0
(27.3%)
Margin: -6.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
AF
3-29-0
(9.4%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -6.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
AF
10-21-1
(32.3%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4%
Total +/-: +5.3
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AF
SJSU
AF
SJSU
ML
81%
26-6
73%
24-9
62%
20-12
62%
20-12
ATS
69%
22-10
73%
24-9
62%
20-12
62%
20-12
TTL
69%
22-10
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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