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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

12-15  |  Road

70
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 9:00 PM ET
Moby Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

17-10  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
RAMS
100%
BULLDOGS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BulldogsFRES (-3.5) 0 RamsCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

42.1%

Rams Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

FRES By 1-7 points

26.8%

FRES By 8-14 points

18.6%

CSU By 1-7 points

23.0%

CSU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
73
FRESNO STATE
71
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
69
FRESNO STATE
78
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 FRES @ CSU 63 - 67
Feb 24, 2026 FRES @ CSU 70 - 74
Jan 13, 2026 CSU @ FRES 69 - 79
Jan 25, 2025 CSU @ FRES 69 - 64
Jan 7, 2025 FRES @ CSU 64 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +19.2% more
Fresno State: 6.1 vs Colorado State: 4.9
Blocks (L5) +106.2% more
Colorado State: 2.7 vs Fresno State: 1.3
Assists (L5) +22.5% more
Colorado State: 16.5 vs Fresno State: 13.5
Free Throw % (L5) +11.4%
Colorado State: 78.8% vs Fresno State: 67.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 73.0 70
CSU Score 71.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 34.8 31.0 / 38.0
Assists 16.5 / 13.5 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.7 / 1.3 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 49.5 45.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 67.4 76.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 32.8 35.0 / 31.0
Steals 4.9 / 6.1 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 10.3 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
CSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
CSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
FRES
CSU
FRES
ML
56% 19-15
59% 19-13
65% 20-11
74% 23-8
ATS
62% 21-13
75% 24-8
65% 20-11
74% 23-8
TTL
56% 19-15
56% 18-14
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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