Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Red Wolves USM @ ARST

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

15-14  |  Road

84
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 8:30 PM ET
First National Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

RED WOLVESARST

18-11  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
📊
RED WOLVES
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
RED WOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Arkansas State)
Golden EaglesUSM (-3.5) 0 Red WolvesARST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

34.5%

Red Wolves Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

USM By 1-7 points

20.1%

USM By 8-14 points

9.3%

ARST By 1-7 points

27.4%

ARST By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
82
SOUTHERN MISS
86
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
68
SOUTHERN MISS
78
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Wolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Wolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Wolves (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Red Wolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 USM @ ARST 84 - 89
Dec 20, 2025 ARST @ USM 93 - 86
Feb 12, 2025 USM @ ARST 67 - 101
Jan 29, 2025 ARST @ USM 81 - 68
Jan 31, 2024 USM @ ARST 71 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +54.3% more
Arkansas State: 16.0 vs Southern Miss: 10.4
Rebounding (L5) +10.9% more
Arkansas State: 42.7 vs Southern Miss: 38.5
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Arkansas State: 49.3% vs Southern Miss: 46.3%
Blocks (L5) +54.0% more
Southern Miss: 5.9 vs Arkansas State: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 82.0 84
ARST Score 86.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 34.9 25.0 / 29.0
Assists 16.0 / 10.4 13.0 / 21.0
Blocks 2.7 / 5.9 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 46.3 41.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 71.7 / 74.2 78.0 / 52.0
Rebounding 42.7 / 38.5 41.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.3 / 8.9 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 17.5 18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
ARST Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
ARST
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
USM
ARST
USM
ML
48% 15-16
53% 18-16
53% 16-14
73% 24-9
ATS
58% 18-13
59% 20-14
53% 16-14
74% 25-9
TTL
61% 19-12
68% 23-11
100% 30-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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