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MASSACHUSETTS

MINUTEMENMASS

15-13  |  Road

73
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Worthen Arena
View Odds Details →

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

8-19  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
MINUTEMEN
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
MINUTEMEN --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Massachusetts)
MinutemenMASS (-3.5) 0 CardinalsBALL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Minutemen Cover

93.3%

Cardinals Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MASS -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MASS)

MASS By 1-7 points

15.3%

MASS By 8-14 points

25.3%

BALL By 1-7 points

4.8%

BALL By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
85
MASSACHUSETTS
70
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
73
MASSACHUSETTS
77
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Minutemen Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Minutemen (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 MASS @ BALL 73 - 74
Jan 10, 2026 BALL @ MASS 71 - 79
Nov 21, 2021 BALL @ MASS 89 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +37.8% more
Massachusetts: 18.2 vs Ball State: 11.3
Field Goal % (L5) +12.1%
Massachusetts: 51.1% vs Ball State: 39.0%
Turnovers (L5) +10.8% more
Massachusetts: 13.1 vs Ball State: 11.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Massachusetts: 40.3% vs Ball State: 35.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MASS Score 85.0 73
BALL Score 70.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 40.3 21.0 / 30.0
Assists 11.3 / 18.2 12.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.8 / 1.4 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 39.0 / 51.1 36.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 67.0 / 60.5 82.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 35.1 41.0 / 49.0
Steals 7.0 / 5.7 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 13.1 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
BALL
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
BALL Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
20-12-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +4.5
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
MASS
BALL
MASS
ML
43% 13-17
44% 14-18
62% 18-11
68% 21-10
ATS
67% 20-10
47% 15-17
62% 18-11
68% 21-10
TTL
50% 15-15
56% 18-14
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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