Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lobos @ Wolf Pack UNM @ NEV

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

21-6  |  Road

60
FINAL
Tue, Feb 24 • 11:00 PM ET
Lawlor Events Center
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

WOLF PACKNEV

18-9  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
LOBOS
0%
📊
WOLF PACK
100%
LOBOS --
WOLF PACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New Mexico)
LobosUNM (-3.5) 0 Wolf PackNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lobos Cover

61.8%

Wolf Pack Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNM -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

UNM By 1-7 points

27.2%

UNM By 8-14 points

20.1%

NEV By 1-7 points

21.6%

NEV By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
79
NEW MEXICO
76
NEVADA
Simulated Score
73
NEW MEXICO
75
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lobos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolf Pack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lobos (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Wolf Pack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 UNM @ NEV 60 - 67
Jan 24, 2026 NEV @ UNM 73 - 80
Mar 4, 2025 UNM @ NEV 71 - 67
Jan 3, 2025 NEV @ UNM 81 - 82
Feb 13, 2024 UNM @ NEV 83 - 82
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.9%
New Mexico: 43.0% vs Nevada: 36.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
New Mexico: 50.8% vs Nevada: 44.1%
Blocks (L5) +29.2% more
Nevada: 3.9 vs New Mexico: 3.1
Turnovers (L5) +25.7% more
Nevada: 12.8 vs New Mexico: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 79.0 60
NEV Score 76.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 43.0 29.0 / 29.0
Assists 13.9 / 13.4 17.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.1 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 50.8 40.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 74.7 73.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 36.3 / 34.9 44.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.1 / 6.3 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 10.2 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
NEV
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
NEV Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
UNM
NEV
UNM
ML
62% 23-14
57% 21-16
73% 27-10
74% 25-9
ATS
73% 27-10
57% 21-16
73% 27-10
74% 25-9
TTL
49% 18-19
41% 15-22
100% 37-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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